Fri 13 Mar 2009
Basketball Stats and Predictions
Posted by Chuck under Basketball, Cavaliers, Ponderings
[5] Comments
The NBA season is drawing to a close, and there is a tight race for the number one seed in the eastern conference, as well as the best record in the NBA. The Cavs and the Celtics have been battling it out all season, so I decided to break down some numbers and come up with a prediction for the final records for the two teams. For the record, the Cavs are currently sitting atop the East with a record of 51-13, and the Celtics are 2 1/2 games back, with a record of 49-16. The Lakers are sitting atop the Western conference at 52-13, and have a slight edge over the cavs for the best record overall.
The first table gives an overall picture of the remaining games. Records are projected using the teams overall win percentage, as well as their overall win percentage versus the teams they will play.
| Team | Games Left | Overall Win % | Projected Record | Win % Vs. Opp | Projected Record |
| CLE | 18 | .797 | 14-4 | .731 | 13-5 |
| BOS | 17 | .754 | 13-4 | .777 | 13-4 |
| LAL | 17 | .800 | 14-3 | .824 | 14-3 |
Now we look at home games. Records are projected using the teams overall home win percentage, their overall win percentage versus the opponents they will play at home, and their overall home win percentage versus the opponents they will play at home.
| Team | Home Games | Overall Home % | Projected Record | Win % Vs. Opp | Projected Record | Home Win % Vs. Opp | Projected Record |
| CLE | 12 | .967 | 12-0 | .727 | 9-3 | 1.00 | 12-0 |
| BOS | 9 | .813 | 7-2 | .727 | 7-2 | 1.00 | 9-0 |
| LAL | 8 | .879 | 7-1 | .900 | 7-1 | 1.00 | 8-0 |
Next up is road games. Records are projected using the teams overall road win percentage, their overall road win percentage versus the opponents they will play on the road, and their overall road percentage versus the opponents when playing on the road.
| Team | Road Games | Overall Road % | Projected Record | Win % Vs. Opp | Projected Record | Road Win % Vs. Opp | Projected Record |
| CLE | 6 | .657 | 4-2 | .700 | 4-2 | .400 | 2-4 |
| BOS | 8 | .697 | 6-2 | .813 | 7-1 | .800 | 6-2 |
| LAL | 9 | .719 | 6-3 | .714 | 6-3 | .333 | 3-6 |
The next table is games versus the opposing conference. Records are projected using the teams overall win percentage versus the opposing conference, and their overall win percentage versus the teams they will play from the opposing conference.
| Team | Vs. opp. Conf. | Overall Win % | Projected Record | Win % Vs. Opp | Projected Record |
| CLE | 4 | .840 | 3-1 | 1.00 | 4-0 |
| BOS | 5 | .640 | 3-2 | .333 | 2-3 |
| LAL | 4 | .727 | 3-1 | .750 | 3-1 |
Now we look at the games versus teams that have a losing record. The only projection made here is based off the teams win percentage versus the sub .500 teams they will play.
| Team | vs. under .500 teams | Win % Vs. Opp | Projected Record |
| CLE | 8 | .818 | 7-1 |
| BOS | 9 | .846 | 8-1 |
| LAL | 9 | .888 | 8-1 |
Lastly, we look at games versus the current top 8 in their conference. Projections are based off the teams win percentage against the teams they will play.
| Team | vs. Conf Top 8 | Win % Vs. Opp | Projected Record |
| CLE | 6 | .583 | 4-2 |
| BOS | 8 | .800 | 6-2 |
| LAL | 5 | .750 | 4-1 |
So there you have it, a bunch of numbers. Who will end up #1 in the east? Who will end up #1 overall? What will their final records be?
The optimist in me wants to say 66-16 for the Cavs, but the stats don’t seem to back it up. Given their record versus the road teams while on the road, I’m gonna go with Cleveland ending the season at 65-17, with 11-1 at home, 3-3 on the road.
I think the Celtics will end up at 62-20. They have 16 losses already, and with 2 games each versus Miami and Atlanta, and a game a piece with Orlando, Cleveland, and San Antonio, losing 4 games seems a safe bet. I’ll say they go 8-1 at home, and 5-3 on the road.
As for LA, they may have the easiest schedule of the three. However, they do have a 7 game road trip, which includes back to backs with Detroit and New Jersey, and Charlotte/Milwaukee. Charlotte and Detroit have both beat the Lakers this season, and they also lost in Portland, who they play on the road again. I’ll say they go 6-3 on the road, and 7-1 at home, finishing a game ahead of Cleveland at 66-16.
Unfortunately, this gives the Lakers home court advantage over Cleveland if they were to meet in the finals. If the Cavs want home court, they need to finish better than the Lakers, since they were 0-2 against them this season and would lose the tiebreaker.
The BotM is Minka Kelly, who you may know from Friday Night Lights. Other than that, there isn’t much of note that she has been in, nor could I dig up much info on her, other than being the kid of short-term Aerosmith guitarist Rick Dufay. But she is pretty hot, and most of the pictures were more tasteful than in month’s past, so it seemed like a good choice. So, without any more delay, enjoy some pictures.